Keep Calm & Grab the Xanax

Welcome to Event Business Intelligence, your weekly source for deep dive insights on growth, strategy, measurement, innovation and M&A for owners of event businesses and executives responsible for event P&Ls.

In today’s newsletter:

• Shouting Into the Void, and A Small Favor Request

• The Signal & The Noise: Sentiment from the C-Suite

• The (Not) Welcome Mat

• A Geographical Realignment of Events?

• What You Can Do

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Shouting Into the Void

This is my 10th post since starting this newsletter, and while I have heard from a number of you, I have this nagging fear that nobody is reading it. Apparently this is so common among newsletter writers that there’s a term for it: “Shouting into the void”. Indeed, it sometimes feels like that.

So, I have a small favor to ask: If you find these articles insightful, please give me some feedback, however brief, to let me know which post(s) resonated with you, what topics you want me to cover, any suggestions on length, format, frequency, etc. or even just that you’re actually reading this.

Last Friday I moderated a webinar and was reminded how nice it is to get instant feedback when presenting to a live audience, whether in person or virtually. You can tell which parts are really engaging the audience, and when they’re starting to lose interest, precious feedback you just can’t get from a newsletter. So, I thank you in advance for letting me know if my work is resonating with you, and that I’m not just ‘shouting into the void’.

The Signal And The Noise

It’s been one month since my post detailing the impact of Trump’s tariffs, DOGE cuts, and pissing off allies, The Lights Are Flashing Red, Again. A lot’s happened since then, most of it not good. Beyond any actual policy, statement or Tweet, however, is the crazy, breakneck pace of total uncertainty. Granted, it’s not Covid and nobody’s dying, but the ongoing unpredictability of all this is giving many of us flashbacks to that period.

Lately I’ve been thinking a lot about pollster Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don’t. Signals are hard facts, while noise is more subjective (e.g. hype, buzz, emotion). There’s sure been a lot of (mostly negative) noise resulting from the barrage of Trump activity since the election, but I try to be careful not to assume that it automatically translates into negative signals.

Over the past few weeks, while attending SISO’s CEO Summit and Event Marketer’s Experiential Marketing Summit, I’ve spoken directly to dozens of event business leaders about how their companies and events are being impacted by the actions of the Trump administration over the past few months, and where they see business headed for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. I also moderated a SITE webinar, The State of M&A for DMCs & Event Agencies, attended by 200 event leaders, half of whom are C-Suite, owner or VP level, and got some valuable feedback there as well.

Throughout my interactions I try to gauge both the signal and the noise. The combination of responses tells me a lot, and often they’re intertwined. Business could be down, but there may be reasons for optimism, or vice versa. Your numbers might be holding strong, but your clients are not hearing good signs on their end.

Here’s what I found. Bear in mind, however, that things are moving so fast that what I’m reporting here might be different in a month, or even a week. Yeah, buckle up.

Signals

When I asked people “how’s business now, and what trends are you seeing for business moving forward?” I got a broad spectrum of answers, depending on whom I was speaking with.

For many, business is still going great. Their numbers are strong and their pipeline looks solid. Whatever chaos is coming out of Washington these days, it’s not impacting them much. Not yet, anyway. The 57% of people in the poll below saying that the tariffs and other government policies are having a minor negative impact, no impact, or a minor positive impact, fall into this category.

For the 43% who say it’s having a major negative impact, the immediate pain seems concentrated in certain sectors and regions. Event marketing spend in industries impacted by tariffs, like alcohol and cars, has been scaled back or put on hold, probably more so because of the ongoing uncertainty than over any specific tariff.

Events driven by government funding, spending or attendance - which encompass more areas than many people realize, such as universities, defense, hospitals and non-profits - are feeling the pinch.

Businesses and events that rely on cross-border travel are also heavily impacted. Regardless of the reason, and I’ll provide my take below, there’s been a definite drop in inbound travel, as evidenced by the chart below, showing the change in non-US passengers processed by Customs & Border Protection at eight of the largest American airports.

Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, has done a thorough analysis of this data, breaking it out airport by airport, and comparing the numbers with US travelers at the same locations, and found the drop over the past 30 days or so to be a consistent trend across the board. You’ll notice these numbers had been declining for over a year now, but the recent activity is a dramatically steeper drop.

Noise

When I asked how people are feeling, however, the response was more uniform: a combination of scared and pissed off. I have yet to speak to anyone who says, “Oh yeah, all this stuff will be great for our business!” At best they are neutral, keeping their heads down on their event work, and trying to ignore the drama. But most people are not happy with what’s going on.

This tracks with the broader economy, as consumer sentiment recently hit it’s 2nd lowest level since it began tracking in 1952. One of these days someone will create a version of this for the event industry, but if we had one I think it would show even worse numbers. People not impacted yet are still bracing for challenging times ahead.

Even those whose events are not in doubt are seeing adverse effects. I spoke with one agency CEO who said about their user conferences, “our large events have 12 month planning cycles, but many of our clients are having to reforecast every quarter, or even every month, now with pretty dramatic swings because of everything going on, requiring us to run numerous budgeting contingencies. Navigating that balance is not easy for either of us.”

The (Not) Welcome Mat

Through the combination of policy directives (tariffs, tighter border restrictions) and trash talking by Trump (annexing Greenland, making Canada the 51st state) there’s little question that the United States has pulled in its welcome mat.

Some actions, like the list of 43 countries subject to different levels of travel bans, are overblown. Look at that list and tell me how many people, if any, from those countries come to your events. This is a non-factor for almost everyone.

Other actions are having an outsized impact, such as the fear of speakers or other attendees being stopped at the border and hassled, interrogated or turned away. There have only been a handful of these incidents, but they tend to go viral. Indeed, I was surprised to hear a number of planners voice this concern.

The biggest factor has been the groundswell of national pride from Canadians, Mexicans, Europeans or other groups being dissed by Trump’s tweets and/or policies that are driving them to effectively boycott attending, exhibiting or hosting events in the US.

Geographical Realignment of Events?

Europe, in particular, is getting the message that the US can no longer be counted on as an ally, leading to a resurgence in calls for pan-European unity and self-reliance. The result will be a “buy local” movement to keep more events outside the US. The question is to what degree.

Pádraic Gilligan, co-founder of incentive consultancy SoolNua, is “seeing a definite shift from “where’s hot?” to “where’s safe?” and from “go big” to “get there.” We can expect more short-haul, all-inclusive programs — and fewer air miles and less geo-political risk.” One result he sees is the increased “regionalization” of incentive travel.

Kai Hattendorf makes the point that the trade show industry follows general trade patterns among nations and regions, and predicts that the presence of foreign exhibitors at US shows will decrease (& vice versa), creating an opening for Asia and Middle East destinations as greater event hubs.

What You Can Do

When faced with circumstances beyond our control, we have to focus on how we respond, and what we do have control over. Nicola Kastner has been sharing some guidance on managing costs and navigating attendance changes. Skift’s Andrea Doyle has done some great reporting on how event leaders are managing the tariff impacts. Here are a few more ideas:

• Lean in to the chaos. When things are unpredictable and rapidly changing, clients need and value trusted advisors. Embrace this opportunity to prove and reinforce your value as a business partner.

• Leverage AI to offset cost increases. It’s not enough to just let employees dabble with AI. Now is the time to challenge your teams to start tracking productivity improvements through AI to be more efficient.

• Get hyper-focused on event ROI. Make sure your event delivers measurable ROI for attendees, sponsors, exhibitors, and hosts, and do a good job communicating that. This is the only silver bullet that will make a difference in any environment.

• Call your elected officials. It does make a difference. Ballotpedia is one of many sites with a Who Represents Me page, where you can enter your address and quickly get links to your Senators and Representatives.

Eventually things will settle back down again. Until then, keep calm and grab the Xanax.

Here’s to taking your event business to the next level!

Howard Givner
Senior Advisor | Oaklins: DeSilva & Phillips (M&A) email me
CEO | Heathcote Advisory Group (Consulting) email me

Thanks for reading! Please give me feedback by hitting reply.

Catch up on recent articles:

• How Much Is Your Event Agency Actually Worth?

• Heather Mason On Building Your Own Event

• AI Is Creating Winners & Losers In Events: Which Will You Be?

• A Tale of 2 Acquisitions: Opus Group CEO Shares M&A Insights

If and when you’re ready, here are ways I work with business leaders:

• Business Diagnostic & Company Valuation

• Growth Consulting

• Exit Planning

• Business Coaching & Owner Accountability

• M&A (Buy Side & Sell Side)

Wanna chat? Email me, or schedule an intro call.

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