The Lights Are Flashing Red. Again.

Welcome to Event Business Intelligence, your weekly source for deep dive insights on growth, strategy, measurement, innovation and M&A for owners of event businesses and executives responsible for event P&Ls.

In today’s newsletter:

• 5 Years After Covid, New Disruptions Roil Planners

• Bracing for Tariffs & Price Increases

• “Conferences = Non-Essential” & Other DOGE Ripple Effects

• Angry Canadians

• Making Your Voice Heard

If you’re not already subscribed, click here:

A Wrecking Ball of Disruption

As the great wordsmith Yogi Berra once said, “it’s like déja vu all over again.”

This month, as we mark the 5-year anniversary of Covid, I’m starting to get that tingling on the back of my neck again that something very disruptive is coming, if it’s not here already.

Granted, the current policy chaos coming out of Washington is not the extinction-level event the pandemic posed to the events industry (though its impact may actually last longer); however, I’m struck by the same feeling that not enough people are fully taking stock of the massive headwinds we’re now facing.

Unlike Covid, which was a singular earthquake, we’re now dealing with a barrage of mini-quakes hitting the economy in many directions, which I’ll get to below. What’s worse is the sheer unpredictability (a less charitable, though more accurate, term would be “chaos”) of it all. There seems to be no method to the madness.

And the tragic part is that unlike Covid, it’s all self-imposed. We might be witnessing the biggest own-goal by a country since Brexit.

Lest you think I’m being alarmist, yesterday Nicola Kastner, CEO of Event Leaders Exchange, a group of 150 or so global heads of events at large companies, posted about this on LinkedIn, with the subject line, I’m concerned:

“After conversations with members and industry peers, it’s become clear that President Trump’s recent policies could pose significant risks to the meetings and events industry. To be clear, this isn’t a political statement. It’s a call to awareness.”

Kastner then lists eight bullet points summarizing the business impacts on the events industry. In 24 hours the post drew over 30k impressions and 160 comments, roughly 95% of which echo her takeaways and share specific examples.

The Tariff Dominoes

Imagine trying to plan a large conference while your boss keeps changing his mind about raising or lowering the registration and exhibitor fees for people coming from certain countries - including Canada, the next largest source of attendees after America - by anywhere from 25%-100%. How are you supposed to hit your registration projections? And good luck to the sponsorship sales team, with exhibitors already scaling back due to cost uncertainty. On the expense side, vendors are telling you to brace for (additional) price increases because so much of the “stuff” - A/V gear, food & beverage, fabrication, furniture rentals, etc. - comes from places impacted by tariffs. Nice way to plan an event, huh?

This has been the Trump tariff show. Putting the policy merits aside (and to be clear, the overwhelming majority of economists say they are bad) uncertainty like this is not good. When people and businesses don’t feel they’re in a stable decision-making environment, they pull back on spending and put things on hold.

As for the actual impact, tariffs make things cost more. And in today’s incredibly interconnected world, it’s almost impossible to predict all the knock-on effects tariffs from one country or industry may have on everything else. Aluminum tariffs, for instance, lead to higher prices for canned goods, construction, automobiles, airplanes and more. If those industries pull back, all the suppliers that sell to them get affected, and so on. Here are some comments from a Slack thread on this topic in Club Ichi, a community of event marketers:

• Tariffs have a huge impact on my business. Significant gear price increases which hinders my ability to increase rental stock and be competitive in the retail market. Anyone with a quick turnaround purchases which requires direct from China products I'm having to put a $5-15k increase on quotes to cover the cost of new tariffs. [A/V, Production company owner.]

• One of our biggest clients is in Canada and their business is going to suffer terribly because a big part of their sales are shipped to the USA. [Experiential agency sales leader.]

Elections have consequences, and Trump’s made no secret of his love of tariffs. However, the haphazard and flippant way they’ve been tossed around has left everyone scrambling and makes Marriott’s clumsy roll out of their 7% commission policy in 2018 seem like masterful planning by comparison. A far better approach would have been to announce a comprehensive tariff plan at least six months before it takes effect, to give businesses time to adjust and prepare in an orderly manner.

The DOGE Effect

In addition to the tariffs, the austerity imposed on the U.S. federal government by Elon Musk and DOGE is having a broad impact on events. More comments from the Club Ichi Slack thread:

• I provide on site support for a city wide convention that just cancelled recently for their event in May. Their attendees are all DoD. Huge impact to the vendors that they hire, exhibitors, not to mention the local economy. [Meeting planning firm.]

• One of my client’s events is in a few weeks and their registration numbers are barely half of what they were last year. A majority of their attendees receive some form of government funding. So many associations are being impacted if their attendees receive any type of government funding. [Meeting planner.] 

• New administration banned gov't workers from attending conferences for at least the next 30 days, and put their credit card limits to $1. Our speakers can't come, which means our attendees won't come. How do we deal with attrition - we are at 25% of our contracted block due to this problem? [Corporate planner.]

People may be surprised by how much of a footprint the Federal government has on our industry. Kai Hattendorf, who just left UFI: The Global Association of the Exhibition Industry after a 10-year stint as CEO, estimated that 1 in 4 dollars spent by government agencies goes to event-related costs. Reining in government spending is a worthwhile endeavor, but the sudden freeze of activity makes for chaotic business planning.

Conferences = Non-Essential?

A bigger concern, however, is Section 3e of the DOGE Cost Efficiency Executive Order, which requires federal agency heads to “prohibit agency employees from engaging in federally funded travel for conferences or other non-essential purposes unless the travel-approving official has submitted a brief, written justification for the federally funded travel within such system.”

There’s nothing wrong with asking an employee to justify the need to attend a conference; it’s actually smart business policy. It’s equally smart for organizers to create “Convince Your Boss” letters for this exact purpose.

👉 But notice the classification of “conferences” as “non-essential.” That’s the default assumption, that these events are not important. Boy, do we have a lot of work to do as an industry. Clearly our efforts to give stakeholders the tools and language to prove the value of attending, exhibiting at or hosting meetings and events must be ramped up.

Angry Canadians

Tariffs and cost-cutting are one thing, but President Trump’s shit-posting about Canada, among other countries, is mind-bogglingly stupid. Not a single Trump voter I know wanted to pick a fight with Canada. Demeaning rants about it becoming the 51st state have served no purpose other than to really, really piss off Canadians. (It’s also single-handedly resurrected Canada’s Liberal Party from almost certain defeat in the upcoming elections.)

I’ve seen a large number of Canadian event professionals publicly call for not bringing meetings and events to the U.S. if they can avoid it. I can’t say I blame them; we’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet. We’ve taken for granted the degree to which Canada’s economy is so interwoven with America’s, and are in for a rude awakening.

👉 In 2024, Canadians spent $20.5 billion in the U.S., more than visitors from any other country. If a decent portion of that spend dries up, it’s going to drive a significant hole in our event revenue numbers.

The Industry Leadership Vacuum

A flood of event professionals have been posting on social media and in private groups about the challenges they’re seeing. The ground keeps shifting beneath their feet and they’re asking for help, but aren’t finding much. Whatever support they’re getting seems to be peer-to-peer.

Many are frustrated by the lack of response or guidance from industry associations and other potential advocates. One meeting planning agency owner I spoke to said “I feel like our industry associations are not even talking about this impact on so many levels.” Another was more blunt: “All they seem to care about are selling sponsorships and promoting their own events. They’re totally out of touch with what’s going on and how hard their members are getting hit. There’s no support.”

Indeed, I scrolled through the past 30 days of LinkedIn posts from MPI, AMA, PCMA, IAEE, CEMA, and even SGMP (the Society of Government Meeting Planners) and couldn’t find a single post about any of this, other than ASAE’s post about a webinar for medical associations impacted by federal funding cuts. It is mostly about promoting their events and awards. You’d never have an inkling that their members are struggling.

Associations have never been known to be bastions of innovation, but the tone-deafness, the sense of being disconnected from the reality on the ground, is eerily reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic.

Making Your Voice Heard

So what can we do about all this?

• One group that is doing something is the Exhibitions & Conferences Alliance, an industry lobbying organization ably led by Tommy Goodwin. If you can make it, their next Legislative Action Day is May 29th in Washington, DC. I went in 2023 and found it truly inspiring. They break you up into groups by your home state, and together you meet with Senators & Congressional Representatives, armed with briefing packets and talking points.

• Reach out to your elected officials to let them know how you’re being impacted by any of these policies or actions. Ballotpedia is one of many sites with a Who Represents Me page, where you can enter your address and quickly get links to your Senators and Representatives.

• Share your situation with industry peers on social media. Contact editors of trade publications. Reach out to your association leadership (try board members and local chapter leaders). Let them know how your events are being impacted by the tariffs, DOGE cuts or other policies. Keep the politics out of it, and focus on the direct impact to your business.

• At the end of the day, the best defense against these economic headwinds is to design and plan events that deliver great ROI, and know how to communicate that to clients and stakeholders. This includes helping your clients define their event goals, knowing how to measure event success, and sometimes using attribution models.

This was a tough post to write, but one I felt needed writing. I promise the next one will be more uplifting!

Here’s to taking your event business to the next level!

Howard Givner

Thanks for reading! Please give me feedback by hitting reply.

Catch up on recent articles:

• How Much Is Your Event Agency Actually Worth?

• Why Return on Objective & Return on Experience Are Meaningless

• Exploring A Sale Without Employees or Clients Finding Out

• AI Is Creating Winners & Losers In Events: Which Will You Be?

• How to Help Your Clients Define, & Weight, Their Event Goals

If and when you’re ready, here are ways I work with agency owners:

• Business Diagnostic & Company Valuation

• Growth Consulting

• Exit Planning

• Business Coaching & Owner Accountability

• M&A (Buy Side & Sell Side)

Wanna chat? Email me, or schedule an intro call.